Three Days of Shifts in U.S. Chip Policy and Industry Moves

A snapshot of current policy, partnerships, and market dynamics in the U.S. chip sector.

Over these past three days, the U.S. semiconductor landscape has been dominated by bold policy proposals aimed at boosting domestic production, Intel’s aggressive outreach to strategic partners, and ongoing tensions over tariffs and supply chains. These developments signal that the interplay between government pressure and corporate strategy is increasingly central to the industry.

Policy and Regulation

The Trump administration is reportedly considering a 25 percent tariff on imported devices, calculated based on the number and value of embedded chips—though exemptions or lower rates (around 15 percent) may apply for goods from nations like Japan and EU states. Reuters+1

A more sweeping measure under review is the “1:1 chip production rule”, which would require companies to manufacture domestically one chip for every chip their customers import or else face tariffs up to 100 percent. This proposal, discussed publicly but not yet enacted, is already feeding into investment decisions and corporate positioning. Reuters+1

At the same time, the White House has rebuffed calls for restrictive export controls on advanced chips, warning they may hinder U.S. competitiveness. Officials instead favor calibrated measures that balance national security with industrial growth. Commerce Secretary Lutnick also championed a “50-50” model, suggesting Taiwan co-produce half of the chips intended for U.S. markets domestically to reduce reliance on overseas supply.

Intel’s Strategic Push

Intel has taken a proactive stance this week, approaching TSMC for possible investment or collaboration, and engaging Apple in earlier discussions as part of its broader effort to reboot competitiveness.

Rumors of a formal Intel - TSMC tie up swirled though TSMC has since publicly denied entering any discussions or planning joint ventures.

Despite the uncertainty, the market responded positively: Intel’s shares saw gains over the period, buoyed by optimism around reshoring and policy initiatives. Nvidia’s existing $5 billion stake in Intel has also reentered the spotlight, interpreted by some as reinforcing the alignment between AI chipmakers and legacy foundries.

Added Context & Observations

  • The 1:1 chip rule proposal is already facing skepticism. Critics argue it could impose severe compliance burdens, distort supply chains, and delay adoption of advanced chips domestically. The Register
  • Intel’s overtures to TSMC come at a time when the company is trying to reduce its dependence on third-party foundries. If a partnership were to happen, it could reshape how the U.S. aligns with Taiwan’s leading chip capacity.
  • Meanwhile, the backdrop of these moves includes existing legislation like the CHIPS and Science Act, which already allocates funding, tax credits, and incentives for domestic semiconductor development. Wikipedia

What to Watch

  • Whether the 1:1 rule or tariff proposals become law, and how those measures are structured (credits, exemptions, timelines)
  • Which investments or alliances Intel secures, and whether they deliver real capacity or remain symbolic
  • How existing fabs and supply chain participants respond, some may accelerate U.S. expansion to benefit, while others might scale back depending on risk
  • Reactions from foreign chipmakers or governments, especially Taiwan, Japan, and EU, as this shift could unsettle global chip flows